webinar
Fixed Income & Structured Finance

Same Rates, Different Speeds: Rethinking Prepayment Risk in Agency and Non-Agency MBS

Why Attend: 
As prepayment behavior shifts across loan types and market segments, are your models keeping pace? Join Andrew Davidson & Co., Inc. (AD&Co.) and Numerix to see AD&Co’s LDM v3.0 and v4.0 compared side by side in Numerix PolyPaths, and learn how changes in Ginnie Mae and non-agency speeds affect pricing, convexity and portfolio decisions.

 

Presenters: 
Kelli Sayres, Business Development
Gene Park, Business Development
David Oh , Director, PolyPaths at Numerix
Aaron Leclair, Director, PolyPaths at Numerix

Prepayment speeds drive value and risk across agency and non-agency mortgage portfolios. Differences between FHA and VA borrowers, the growth of investor and debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) lending, and constant model updates make forecasting cash flows with confidence harder. Portfolio managers, traders, and risk teams need to understand what changed in a model, why speeds diverge across loan types, and how those differences affect pricing and convexity.

Join experts from Andrew Davidson & Co., Inc. (AD&Co.) and Numerix on November 18, 2026 at 10a.m. EST for a live discussion and demonstration. Using Numerix PolyPaths, the panel will compare AD&Co's Loan Dynamics Model (LDM) v3.0 and v4.0 side by side, take a closer look at Ginnie Mae speeds, and show how non-agency loan features shape valuation.

Discussion highlights:

  • LDM v3.0 vs. v4.0: how the S-curves compare, with both model versions loaded in a single PolyPaths session to compare projected speeds
  • The State of Ginnie Mae, VA vs. FHA: why speeds differ between loan types, how historical pool speeds compare with model results, and what that means for investors
  • Non-agency LDM in Practice: a pay-up, convexity and speed analysis of DSCR investor loans with different prepayment penalty provisions
  • Lender Choice and VantageScore: how newer borrower and origination data can sharpen prepayment views

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